EFDC HAS TOLD THE INSPECTOR IT DOES NOT CONSIDER THAT ANY ADJUSTMENT IS NEEDED TO THE PROPOSED HOUSING NUMBERS (11,400) IN THE LIGHT OF THE 2018 ONS FIGURES.
Following on from our July 2020 update, EFDC’s response of 4 September 2020 enclosing a report from their Consultants, Opinion Research Services (ORS) (see documents ED114/114A here) to the Planning Inspector’s letter of 14 July 2020 was finally made public on 23 September 2020. This response related to the latest (2018 based) Government national statistics which indicated a reduction of around 50% in projected household numbers for our district. The Inspector had asked EFDC to consider whether these latest projections “represent a meaningful change in the housing situation” and “Whether the projected reduction in household growth affects the justification for the plan’s proposed Green Belt releases”.
It is, therefore, very disappointing that EFDC has reached the conclusion that the latest statistical projections…. “do[es] not represent a meaningful change in the housing situation” and that “the housing requirement in the Local Plan Submission Version does not need to be adjusted.” EFDC then summarises: “Given this conclusion the Council does not consider that it affects the justification for the plan’s proposed Green Belt releases.”
The report and conclusion of EFDC’s consultants, ORS, is based on the ‘ten year variant method’ which looks back over the past 10 years when inward migration was higher, rather than looking at the present decreasing figures from 2014, 2016 and 2018 towards the indication of future, and downward, trends. It should be noted that ORS have also produced a similar report jointly for the Strategic Housing Market Area of Harlow, East Herts and Uttlesford District Council’s.
In view of our Council’s decision not to take this very valid opportunity to reduce or remove planned development in our Green Belt and are effectively ‘not budging an inch’, TBAG took the opportunity to write to the Planning Inspector on 6 October to express our support for her view that she may consider it necessary to seek the views of other participants in the examination. TBAG received a prompt reply on the following day confirming “that the Inspector will be inviting comments on these documents”; i.e. the Government’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) latest, 2018-Based Household Projections, and EFDC’s response to the Inspector, including the commissioned 27 page response from the Council’s consultants, ORS.
TBAG have heard today that this consultation will end in early November. TBAG will therefore actively participate in the Inspector’s Consultation on the latest (reduced) Government figures for Household Projections in Epping Forest District and will point out deficiencies in EFDC’s response and its commissioned consultant’s report on housing numbers.
TBAG, whilst committed to protecting the Green Belt surrounding Theydon Bois, are also very much aware of the detrimental impact on the unique Epping Forest biosphere that will result should there be increased recreational pressures and atmospheric pollution resulting from excessive and unnecessary increased housing numbers and associated traffic movements.